9 hours ago
The arrival of spring training often inspires people to embrace Los Angeles Dodgers Jersey and boundless optimism for the coming year. That's all well and good, but I have a different take: the start of the show season is a good time to reacquaint yourself with disappointment, at least as far as this column is concerned.
In keeping with tradition around these parts, today I'm using spring training as an excuse to put on my prognosticator's hat and predict which team from last year's playoffs is most likely to miss out on the fun this October.
For those of you who are new to this exercise, it stems from my past research, which showed that in the 10-team playoff era, half of the teams change every year. This will be the fourth season with 12 teams in the tournament, and while the sample is small, the 50 percent attrition rate has held steady so far: six teams each in 2022 and 2023 failed to return to the postseason the following October. Will this trend continue? Stay tuned.
In any case, for now, I'm sticking with the five-team format for this exercise. I can only hope to have as much success this year as I did last year, when four of the five teams I picked, including the World Series champion Texas Rangers, missed the tournament. The only team that failed, by the way, was the Milwaukee Brewers. They made me look foolish for doubting their chances in what was, admittedly, a losing winter.
5.Houston Astros
The Astros enter the New Year having made the playoffs in 9 of the last 10 seasons, including the last 7. As impressive as that is, there comes a time when that streak comes with a price. Few clubs have been able to remain ultra-competitive for a decade without age, winning trades and low draft picks.
I wouldn't be surprised if the Astros find their way into October again - the West is looking like a three-team race, and who knows how that will shake it up - but I have to admit that time is starting to get tighter. Houston has given the impression over the past two offseasons that the organization doesn't have a unified vision for the short and long term; it's hard to reconcile the general mindset behind some of the major moves the Astros have made.
It's one thing to pay big bucks for finisher Josh Hader or sign a veteran first baseman like Christian Walker to a three-year contract. It's another to say goodbye to homegrown stars Alex Bregman and Kyle Tucker (although I think Houston did a good job in the Tucker deal if they had to trade him) while also cutting the salary of high-leverage relief pitcher Ryan Presley to save $8 million. All the pieces don't fit together so perfectly; some are about winning now, regardless of future costs, while others are about repositioning the team to be better than it was in a year or two.
Again, is it possible for the Astros to overcome this seeming identity crisis? Absolutely. Neither the Seattle Mariners nor the Rangers have done enough to elevate Houston's endangered status. I'm just concerned that the Astros' attempt to accomplish two goals will cause them to fail to achieve either one.
4 - San Diego Padres.
The Padres have a couple obvious disadvantages. Most importantly, they just finished an offseason in which they barely participated in any meaningful way, ostensibly because of their chaotic ownership situation. Meanwhile, the Padres have had to watch their three division rivals expand their rosters. The Giants added Willie Adams and Justin Verlander; the Rattlers added Corbin Burns; and the Dodgers, already the defending World Series champions, brought in several All-Star caliber players.
Keep in mind that the Padres will likely field five players age 31 or older, including Manny Machado, Jake Cronenworth, and Xander Bogaerts, to make up a mostly game-day lineup. Fernando Tatis Jr. and Jackson Merrill are both excellent, but the availability of the former and the sustainability of the latter are also questionable (Merrill has the lowest walk rate of any player who is 30% or better than league average). Then there's the rotation, with Joe Musgrove already out and having to rely on players like Yu Darvish and Michael King to stay strong.
General manager A.J. Preller is one of the boldest and most opportunistic executives in the game. As far as I can tell, he's going to make another big push to solidify his lineup between now and Opening Day. Will that be enough? I don't know. I certainly hope so, because a revitalized San Diego under him would be a huge step forward for the game.
3. Cleveland Defenders
One of the easiest ways to identify candidates for regression in a team's level of play is to look for extreme performances in single points and extra innings. While we like to romanticize this dynamic by talking about the team's fighting spirit or portraying their manager as a genius capable of overcoming the unbeatable nature of his peers, studies have shown that winning a lot of one-run games is more about luck than skill.
Which brings us to the Defenders.
Last year, Cleveland finished 26 wins and 19 losses in one-run games, third in the majors in winning percentage. The Defenders were also an incredible 10-3 in overtime games, tied with several other teams for the second most overtime wins.
I know what you're thinking. Yes, manager Stephen Vogt in his second year in charge seems to be a quick learner. Yes, the MLB Jersey Guardian's management is very good at this whole business (even if ownership won't provide them with the financial resources they need to take the next step). Yes, Emmanuel Claeys is the best finisher in baseball. Yes, it's easy to look at Cade Smith, Eric Sabrowski, and Hunter Gaddis and think "those three are pretty good, too." Yes, the Guardian should benefit from keeping Sean Bieber ...... and so on.
You can hold these views. You can be heartened by them. But history shows that you can't - and, really, you shouldn't - assume that the Guardian will win one-point games by 94 wins, or overtime games by 125 wins. That doesn't mean the Guardian is necessarily finished. It does mean that they likely won't reach 92 wins - and, in a division with three other playoff hopefuls, that could be enough to make them sitting ducks in the fall.
2. Kansas City Royals
The Royals were one of the best stories in baseball last season. After losing 106 games, they didn't give up on last winter. They didn't accept the fait accompli of another losing season. They spent money on trades while pleasing fortune (if you believe such a thing is possible). Obviously, the end result was good, as the Royals became the second team to clinch a playoff spot in a year after losing 100 or more games.
Unfortunately, I had to rank Kansas City at the top of this list because ...... well, the Royals weren't as enthusiastic this offseason as they were last season. I'm happy with the Jonathan Indiana trade and the Carlos Estevez signing, and I wouldn't have minded keeping Michael Wacha and Michael Lorenzen. But I'd like to see the Royals be more aggressive in improving a lineup that ranks 13th in runs scored, 19th in on-base percentage, and 20th in FanGraphs' ballpark-adjusted wRC+ metric.
Perhaps the Royals' patience with MJ Melendez, Maikel Garcia and a couple other homegrown players will pay off. I'm just concerned that they're leaving a lineup that will have four or five hitters in it, and a pitching staff that could see some experienced pitchers slip. If both of those issues come up.
In keeping with tradition around these parts, today I'm using spring training as an excuse to put on my prognosticator's hat and predict which team from last year's playoffs is most likely to miss out on the fun this October.
For those of you who are new to this exercise, it stems from my past research, which showed that in the 10-team playoff era, half of the teams change every year. This will be the fourth season with 12 teams in the tournament, and while the sample is small, the 50 percent attrition rate has held steady so far: six teams each in 2022 and 2023 failed to return to the postseason the following October. Will this trend continue? Stay tuned.
In any case, for now, I'm sticking with the five-team format for this exercise. I can only hope to have as much success this year as I did last year, when four of the five teams I picked, including the World Series champion Texas Rangers, missed the tournament. The only team that failed, by the way, was the Milwaukee Brewers. They made me look foolish for doubting their chances in what was, admittedly, a losing winter.
5.Houston Astros
The Astros enter the New Year having made the playoffs in 9 of the last 10 seasons, including the last 7. As impressive as that is, there comes a time when that streak comes with a price. Few clubs have been able to remain ultra-competitive for a decade without age, winning trades and low draft picks.
I wouldn't be surprised if the Astros find their way into October again - the West is looking like a three-team race, and who knows how that will shake it up - but I have to admit that time is starting to get tighter. Houston has given the impression over the past two offseasons that the organization doesn't have a unified vision for the short and long term; it's hard to reconcile the general mindset behind some of the major moves the Astros have made.
It's one thing to pay big bucks for finisher Josh Hader or sign a veteran first baseman like Christian Walker to a three-year contract. It's another to say goodbye to homegrown stars Alex Bregman and Kyle Tucker (although I think Houston did a good job in the Tucker deal if they had to trade him) while also cutting the salary of high-leverage relief pitcher Ryan Presley to save $8 million. All the pieces don't fit together so perfectly; some are about winning now, regardless of future costs, while others are about repositioning the team to be better than it was in a year or two.
Again, is it possible for the Astros to overcome this seeming identity crisis? Absolutely. Neither the Seattle Mariners nor the Rangers have done enough to elevate Houston's endangered status. I'm just concerned that the Astros' attempt to accomplish two goals will cause them to fail to achieve either one.
4 - San Diego Padres.
The Padres have a couple obvious disadvantages. Most importantly, they just finished an offseason in which they barely participated in any meaningful way, ostensibly because of their chaotic ownership situation. Meanwhile, the Padres have had to watch their three division rivals expand their rosters. The Giants added Willie Adams and Justin Verlander; the Rattlers added Corbin Burns; and the Dodgers, already the defending World Series champions, brought in several All-Star caliber players.
Keep in mind that the Padres will likely field five players age 31 or older, including Manny Machado, Jake Cronenworth, and Xander Bogaerts, to make up a mostly game-day lineup. Fernando Tatis Jr. and Jackson Merrill are both excellent, but the availability of the former and the sustainability of the latter are also questionable (Merrill has the lowest walk rate of any player who is 30% or better than league average). Then there's the rotation, with Joe Musgrove already out and having to rely on players like Yu Darvish and Michael King to stay strong.
General manager A.J. Preller is one of the boldest and most opportunistic executives in the game. As far as I can tell, he's going to make another big push to solidify his lineup between now and Opening Day. Will that be enough? I don't know. I certainly hope so, because a revitalized San Diego under him would be a huge step forward for the game.
3. Cleveland Defenders
One of the easiest ways to identify candidates for regression in a team's level of play is to look for extreme performances in single points and extra innings. While we like to romanticize this dynamic by talking about the team's fighting spirit or portraying their manager as a genius capable of overcoming the unbeatable nature of his peers, studies have shown that winning a lot of one-run games is more about luck than skill.
Which brings us to the Defenders.
Last year, Cleveland finished 26 wins and 19 losses in one-run games, third in the majors in winning percentage. The Defenders were also an incredible 10-3 in overtime games, tied with several other teams for the second most overtime wins.
I know what you're thinking. Yes, manager Stephen Vogt in his second year in charge seems to be a quick learner. Yes, the MLB Jersey Guardian's management is very good at this whole business (even if ownership won't provide them with the financial resources they need to take the next step). Yes, Emmanuel Claeys is the best finisher in baseball. Yes, it's easy to look at Cade Smith, Eric Sabrowski, and Hunter Gaddis and think "those three are pretty good, too." Yes, the Guardian should benefit from keeping Sean Bieber ...... and so on.
You can hold these views. You can be heartened by them. But history shows that you can't - and, really, you shouldn't - assume that the Guardian will win one-point games by 94 wins, or overtime games by 125 wins. That doesn't mean the Guardian is necessarily finished. It does mean that they likely won't reach 92 wins - and, in a division with three other playoff hopefuls, that could be enough to make them sitting ducks in the fall.
2. Kansas City Royals
The Royals were one of the best stories in baseball last season. After losing 106 games, they didn't give up on last winter. They didn't accept the fait accompli of another losing season. They spent money on trades while pleasing fortune (if you believe such a thing is possible). Obviously, the end result was good, as the Royals became the second team to clinch a playoff spot in a year after losing 100 or more games.
Unfortunately, I had to rank Kansas City at the top of this list because ...... well, the Royals weren't as enthusiastic this offseason as they were last season. I'm happy with the Jonathan Indiana trade and the Carlos Estevez signing, and I wouldn't have minded keeping Michael Wacha and Michael Lorenzen. But I'd like to see the Royals be more aggressive in improving a lineup that ranks 13th in runs scored, 19th in on-base percentage, and 20th in FanGraphs' ballpark-adjusted wRC+ metric.
Perhaps the Royals' patience with MJ Melendez, Maikel Garcia and a couple other homegrown players will pay off. I'm just concerned that they're leaving a lineup that will have four or five hitters in it, and a pitching staff that could see some experienced pitchers slip. If both of those issues come up.